PrepTest 83, Section 3, Question 21
In an experiment, subjects were shown a series of images on a computer screen, appearing usually at the top but occasionally at the bottom. Subjects were asked to guess each time where the next image would appear on the screen. They guessed correctly less than half of the time. The subjects all reported that they based their guesses on patterns they believed they saw in the sequence. Instead, if they had simply guessed that the next image would always appear at the top, they would have been correct most of the time.
In an experiment, subjects were shown a series of images on a computer screen, appearing usually at the top but occasionally at the bottom. Subjects were asked to guess each time where the next image would appear on the screen. They guessed correctly less than half of the time. The subjects all reported that they based their guesses on patterns they believed they saw in the sequence. Instead, if they had simply guessed that the next image would always appear at the top, they would have been correct most of the time.
In an experiment, subjects were shown a series of images on a computer screen, appearing usually at the top but occasionally at the bottom. Subjects were asked to guess each time where the next image would appear on the screen. They guessed correctly less than half of the time. The subjects all reported that they based their guesses on patterns they believed they saw in the sequence. Instead, if they had simply guessed that the next image would always appear at the top, they would have been correct most of the time.
In an experiment, subjects were shown a series of images on a computer screen, appearing usually at the top but occasionally at the bottom. Subjects were asked to guess each time where the next image would appear on the screen. They guessed correctly less than half of the time. The subjects all reported that they based their guesses on patterns they believed they saw in the sequence. Instead, if they had simply guessed that the next image would always appear at the top, they would have been correct most of the time.
If all of the statements above are true, which one of the following must also be true?
If the subjects had always guessed that the next image would appear at the top, they would not have been basing their guesses on any pattern they believed they saw in the sequence.
Basing one's guesses about what will happen next on the basis of patterns one believes one sees is less likely to lead to correct guesses than always guessing that what has happened before will happen next.
There was no predictable pattern that one could reasonably believe occurred in the series of images on the computer screen.
Some of the subjects sometimes guessed that the next image would appear at the bottom of the computer screen, but were incorrect.
The most rational strategy for guessing correctly where the next image would appear would have been simply to always guess that the image would appear at the top.
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