PrepTest 41, Section 3, Question 8
Travel writer: A vacationer should choose an airline that has had an accident in the past 5 years. Though this may seem counterintuitive, studies show that the average airline has 1 accident every 5 years. So if an airline has had no accident during the past 5 years, the chances that the airline will have a crash are increased.
Travel writer: A vacationer should choose an airline that has had an accident in the past 5 years. Though this may seem counterintuitive, studies show that the average airline has 1 accident every 5 years. So if an airline has had no accident during the past 5 years, the chances that the airline will have a crash are increased.
Travel writer: A vacationer should choose an airline that has had an accident in the past 5 years. Though this may seem counterintuitive, studies show that the average airline has 1 accident every 5 years. So if an airline has had no accident during the past 5 years, the chances that the airline will have a crash are increased.
Travel writer: A vacationer should choose an airline that has had an accident in the past 5 years. Though this may seem counterintuitive, studies show that the average airline has 1 accident every 5 years. So if an airline has had no accident during the past 5 years, the chances that the airline will have a crash are increased.
The flawed reasoning in the travel writer's argument is most similar to that in which one of the following arguments?
A tossed coin has come up heads 100 times in a row. It is therefore reasonable to believe that the coin is not fair, and thus that it is more likely to come up heads than tails when it is flipped again.
If there are 10 adult male baboons in a troop, the chance of an average adult male baboon ascending to dominance in any given year is 1 in 10. Thus, if an adult male baboon has been in the troop more than 10 years and has never ascended to dominance, then the chance of his doing so is now better than 1 in 10.
On a given day, an average resident's chance of being involved in a traffic accident in a certain city is 1 in 10,000. Therefore, the chance of Marty, a 5-year-old resident, being involved in a traffic accident in the city on any given day is also 1 in 10,000.
The average adolescent who works full-time in a certain country makes about 76 cents for every dollar that an adult who works full-time there makes. Therefore, since in this country the average adolescent who works part-time makes less than the average adolescent who works full-time, the average adolescent who works part-time makes less than 76 cents for every dollar made by an employed adult.
Though until recently this chess grandmaster had responded to opening move X with move Y half of the time, in the current tournament he has responded to move X with move Y 90 percent of the time. Thus, in the next game of the current tournament, he is 90 percent likely to respond to move X with move Y.
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