2.12 - The LSAT is Predictable

Next, we're exploring the power of prediction.

If you're still early on in your studies, predicting answers probably feels like a pipe dream. Don't sweat it—you're about to become a prediction-making machine.

This lesson will cover:

• What "prediction" means on the LSAT
• Prediction's benefits on each test section
• How predicting puts you in control of the answers
• Some caveats about prediction so you don't leave misguided

Let's get started.

What I Mean By Prediction

If you've been paying attention throughout the course, you've noticed just how often solving LSAT questions comes down to figuring out what else must be true or what would suffice to prove something. These are just different ways of applying your new LSAT superpower: prediction.

Think about it. What is prediction, really? 

I'm not talking ESP here, just a process of figuring things out without someone having to spoon-feed you. It's using the information you have to think on your feet and make reasoned judgments.

I'm convinced this is why I see such strong performance from students who talk to the test. All these students are doing is having a figurative conversation to tease apart the possibilities. This talking back and forth leads to more "aha!" moments—to more predictions.

Prediction Puts You in Control of the Answer Choices

If you're proficient enough to get to every question on test day, you'll have read 100 correct answers and 400 wrong ones.

Think about that for a second. That's 400 professionally written boobytraps eager to confuse you. Your best defense against them is knowing what to look for in the first place—i.e. well-founded predictions.

When you predict—even if your prediction misses the mark—you go into the answer choices on firmer footing than if you hadn't. It helps you find what's correct and easily disqualify what's incorrect.

If you don't understand the passage and / or what the question wants you to do, you will not find salvation in the answer choices. You'll end up confused, discouraged, and scoring lower than your prediction-making peers.

So start predicting and stop letting the answer choices boss you around.

Prediction Helps on Every Section

Every section has question types conducive to prediction. Some of them are so predictable that, as you hone this skill, you'll often find yourself predicting correct answers verbatim.

Let's discuss this section-by-section.

Predicting on Logical Reasoning

Prediction is arguably the most useful on Logical Reasoning.

LR passages are very repetitive. You can often predict both the question itself and its answer without ever reading beyond the passage.

Not to mention, most Logical Reasoning questions are completely predictable. I'll use two examples to keep things brief: Main Conclusions and Sufficient Assumptions.

On Main Conclusion questions, the conclusion's right there in the passage.

Imagine you read through an argument, correctly spotting its evidence and conclusion. Then, someone asks you what the argument concluded. You wouldn't ask that person for 5 options. You'd just answer their question!

What about Sufficient Assumptions, then?

Recall from our last lesson that Sufficient Assumptions ask us to fill a very specific gap between the argument's evidence and its conclusion. Predict what would completely fill the gap and—boom! There's your answer. It's truly that simple.

These are just two examples. The more you practice predicting, the more you'll see just how big a leg-up it provides.

Predicting on Reading Comprehension

I'd buy the argument that prediction helps the most on LR, but you could also make a very strong case that prediction helps even more on Reading Comprehension.

Every Reading Comprehension question is grounded in its corresponding passage, so the passage functions much like an answer key. That is, each correct answer will have rock-solid evidence that will be, at most, a step or two removed from the words right there on page.

I find that "predicting" on Reading Comprehension boils down to just answering the question before reading any of the answer choices. Next time you work through an RC passage, try asking yourself, "If I didn't have options to pick from, how could I answer correctly?"

Need to know whether the author would agree? Start with what they literally said about the subject in the passage, then consider how what they said reveals their perspective. That's your prediction. Go find it in the answer choices.

You can apply this same process to pretty much all RC questions.

What was the main point? Concisely rephrase the key ideas in a sentence or two. That's your prediction. Find the answer that matches most closely.

Need to determine a word's contextual definition? Well, how did the author use it? What did that mean? The answer to those latter two questions will formulate your prediction. Go find that definition in the answer choices and reject all others.

We could run this gamut on every RC question type.

The benefits abound and the results speak for themselves. Not only will your accuracy increase, but so will your speed. You'll find right answers more frequently and eliminate wrong answers more rapidly, often without having to revisit the passage at all.

Predicting on Logic Games

Prediction on Logic Games is a bit of a gray area. That is, LG predictions don't tend to involve us pondering the possibilities so much as reviewing our diagrams to uncover the answers. You might reasonably argue that such a process doesn't involve "predicting" anything.

But the process is still pretty similar, especially compared to Reading Comp: You consider what you've been asked to solve for and then make reasoned judgments based on the information you have available.

The elephant in the room on Logic Games is that most (if not all) of the info we'll need lives within our diagrams.

Like RC, predicting on games often boils down to using a sort of answer key—on RC this answer key's the passage whereas on games it's your worlds / scenarios.

For example, if you're asked, "What's the minimum number of dog breeds that could be in the dog show?", well-made worlds will reveal the answer. I'd argue that's a prediction. You just did the work upfront instead of on the fly.

Then there are more black-and-white examples, like predicting Rule Substitutions.

I never get tired of watching students' jaws drop when I predict the answer to a rule sub—it's great. But it's even better when they figure out what I'm doing and start doing it themselves.

Predicting rule subs boils down to understanding what impact the subbed rule has on the game—both on its own and in the context of the larger puzzle. Since you need to find the same effect, you just need to figure out what effect you're replacing and how you could otherwise achieve it.

Caveats

You could easily misinterpret some of this advice, so I want to clarify three things before we finish up this lesson.

Some Questions Are More Predictable Than Others (But Predict Anyway)

The examples I use throughout this lesson might convey that the LSAT is totally predictable. That's not the case.

Yes, you can frequently predict the answers, and sometimes even the question types. But some questions are less predictable than others.

For instance, when you're faced with a Necessary Assumption, a Strengthener, or a Weakener, there are often many possible correct answers. Predicting answers to these questions word-for-word can be challenging. But making verbatim predictions isn't your goal.

When you're faced with a less predictable question type, I still encourage you to make some sort of prediction.

On a Necessary Assumption, come up with one or two things the conclusion depends on.

On a Strengthener, go into the answer choices with an example of something that would further support the conclusion.

On a Weakener, find an attack vector that casts doubt on part of the argument.

Even on less predictable questions, running through these exercises will only reinforce your understanding and increase the likelihood that you'll find the right answer.

You Still Shouldn't Skip Answer Choices

Don't skip answer choices. Period. Develop a habit of reading all five to the point where you can confidently eliminate them. That doesn't mean you have to read every single word—you can often eliminate answer choices very quickly as you catch reasons to disqualify them. Nevertheless, don't skip over answer choices.

I see even the best LSAT students regularly mess this up, myself included. And it becomes more enticing to skip as you improve your ability to predict answers and eliminate answer choices.

This isn't about time-savings. It's about accuracy. You owe it to yourself to not cough up a point because you were arrogant or in a hurry. Cash that check, instead. So, I'll say once more, don't skip over answer choices.

You Have to Make Good Predictions

This might sound like silly advice, but I've had students lean into prediction (good) without taking the time to consider what makes a good prediction in the first place (bad).

So, what makes a good prediction? Simple: good predictions come from understanding the passage and then applying that understanding to the question. That's it.

"But, Braaaaandon! I did understand, I just didn't like how that answer choice felt."

Hate to break it to you, but no, you didn't.

I trust that you think you understood, but if everything had clicked for you as the test-makers intended, you'd be on the other side of a correct answer right now instead of trying to rationalize your wrongness.

Good predictions come from understanding what you read and properly applying that understanding.

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That's it for prediction. What did I miss? What should I add or discuss further? Leave me a comment below to help me improve this course.

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Next up, we're talking all about one of the biggest traps on the LSAT: using outside information. I'll see you there.